Thursday, September 18, 2003

"We simultaneously overestimate the short-term impact and underestimate the long-term impact."

Rule coined by Roy Amara (but often misattributed to Paul Saffo) of the Institute for the Future. That rule is now called the "First Law of Technology": "A consistent pattern in our response to new technologies is we simultaneously overestimate the short-term impact and underestimate the long-term impact."

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