Thursday, July 30, 2020

Outsized returns come from betting against conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom is usually right

--- Jeff Bezos, in testimony to the House Judiciary committee, Antitrust sub-committee on July 29, 2020, on the topic Online Platforms and Market Power, Part 6: Examining the Dominance of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google, from his witness statement (pdf)

Excerpt

In addition to good luck and great people, we have been able to succeed as a company only because we have continued to take big risks.  To invent you have to experiment, and if you know in advance that it’s going to work, it’s not an experiment.  Outsized returns come from betting against conventional wisdom, but conventional wisdom is usually right.  

Monday, July 27, 2020

between jargon and platitudes, I prefer jargon

--- Roland Barthes, quoted by Michael Wood in The Meaninglessness of Meaning, London Review of Books, Vol. 8 No. 17, 9 October 1986

From the piece
His first published piece of writing was on Gide’s Journal, and, asked if he knew Gide, Barthes replies that he saw him only once, from a distance, at the Lutétia: ‘he was eating a pear and reading a book.’ What interested him about Gide? Barthes’s answer might be taken as a swift epitaph on himself, four brief sentences wonderfully afloat on all they don’t say: ‘He was a Protestant. He played the piano. He talked about desire. He wrote.’

An earlier, more militant remark is worth pondering too: ‘between jargon and platitudes, I prefer jargon.’ Of course we fervently hope that is not the choice, but if it were? ‘It’s shameful to judge someone on his vocabulary,’ Barthes adds.

magic is ... any kind of personal supplication from a once-dominant religious system which got pushed off center stage by a new system

--- Christopher Fennell, quoted in "Searching for the Witches’ Tower," Archaeology Magazine, November/December 2019, p. 37 (web version, p. 4)

From the article
Another explanation for the Pendle witch trials may lie in forgotten folk practices that often go unmentioned in official historical documents. Seventeenth-century Britons were mostly illiterate, lived by the rhythm of the agricultural calendar, and fought illness without the assistance of modern medicine. For decades, many historians subscribed to the notion that as Christianity replaced indigenous pagan religious systems in the British Isles from the late Roman period onward, magical superstition died out. Archaeologists, however, do find objects, markings, inscriptions, and other evidence of rituals and practices that should, they say, be considered magical. “When people start talking about magical invocations, they rarely try to define magic,” says archaeologist Christopher Fennell of the University of Illinois. “One definition of magic is that it is any kind of personal supplication from a once-dominant religious system which got pushed off center stage by a new system.” Christianity, Fennell says, by way of example, marginalized paganism in England, but individual rituals surviving from those belief systems continued to be carried on in private spaces.

our sense of our relationships with the past has to be one that’s capable of including contradiction

--- Fintan O'Toole, in the Talking Politics podcast episode Britain Wrestles with its Past, 24 June 2020.

From the conversation, with time codes in square brackets (44 MB mp3)
[17:08] The question then, it seems to me, is, do you just join in then, with kicking Churchill because he’s being grotesquely misused by Johnson or Trump, and say, Well, this is the time to kick him when he’s down; or should democrats be saying, Well, actually what Churchill tells us is that history is a complicated thing. [17:31] You know, that actually identity is complicated, that our sense of our relationships with the past has to be one that’s capable of including contradiction.

Sunday, July 26, 2020

The residents of Babylon in the first millennium B.C. saw themselves as facing their past and walking backward into the future

--- Jarrett A. Lobell, "Magical Beasts of Babylon," Archaeology Magazine, November/December 2019

Opening lines of the article:

The residents of Babylon in the first millennium B.C. saw themselves as facing their past and walking backward into the future. In the Akkadian language of ancient Mesopotamia, the word panu, or "face," relates to the past, whereas "behind" is a word associated with the future.
This reminded me of  the finding that in the Aymara language, "FUTURE IS BEHIND EGO and PAST IS IN FRONT OF EGO" according to a 2010 paper by Núñez and Sweetser; for more, see the 2006 UCSD press release Backs to the Future.

Thursday, July 09, 2020

The fear of machines outsmarting us, ...—I don’t think that’s new

--- Urs Fischer, in conversation with Natasha Stagg, Gagosian Quarterly, Winter 2018

From the interview:
Natasha Stagg There does seem to be a common fear of technology and machine learning, though—that it will outsmart you eventually.

Urs Fischer Yeah, good. I mean, we’re not that smart to begin with.

NS But we’re creating the machine, so we don’t want to be outsmarted by it.

UF Our species creates all sorts of things, but look at what else we do: we tap into natural resources like there’s no tomorrow, knowing it’s bad for us as a species and for the rest of life on this planet. But we do it with very elaborate, smart machines. . . . There are a lot of things we do that we don’t want to talk about because we don’t like the solutions. We procreate like crazy, creating more of us, caring about the ones close to us but not about a bigger picture. We just mess everything up. How smart are we? I tend to think that we’re idiots. We’re smart enough to do things but too dumb to understand what we do. The fear of machines outsmarting us, the feeling, the emotional side of this—I don’t think that’s new. The world has always been ending. The apocalypse is as old as history, just with different ingredients.
IMHO, the world has always been ending because our lives are always ending; the apocalypse is personal before it’s collective. 

I’m willing to believe that the fear of machines outsmarting us isn’t new either, since it’s human to fear being outsmarted, primarily by other humans and then by anything else that our hyper-active innate agency detectors identify. If the fear is perennial, presumably the optimism is, too.